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prediction markets

your agent can read the odds on real-world questions, watch the markets you care about, and, where you are allowed to trade, propose a position for your approval on two venues: one that settles in crypto and one that settles in dollars.

a prediction market is a price on whether something will happen, and your agent is a good reader of those prices: it can find the market, explain the odds, watch them move, and, where you may trade, propose a position. this page is the two venues, the rules, and the state of each.

the two venues

a crypto-settled venue. markets on world events, priced in a dollar stablecoin on a public chain. your agent can browse the hottest markets, read a market's odds and history, and check a wallet's positions and balance.

a dollar-settled, regulated venue. markets priced in US dollars on a venue regulated in the United States, where you bring your own trading key. your agent can search markets, read trending questions, check your balance, positions and profit and loss, and propose an order.

what are the odds on rain in new york on saturday, and how have they moved this week?

how does a trade happen?

your agent proposes it, with the market, the side, the size and the price, and you approve it with a tap; nothing is placed without your yes. that is the rule on every trading venue today. our counsel has cleared an autonomous mode; it cannot open on this venue until its keys move onto our secured signer, because while a key is on the machine no server could enforce a switch. when it comes, it lives in the permissions room, never in chat. your agent uses the platform's own trading tools and never improvises its own, and it never claims a position is live unless the order actually matched.

where does the key live?

for the crypto-settled venue, today the trading key sits on your agent's machine, so the balance you keep in that account is the limit that actually binds; we are moving it onto our secured signer, and when yours moves, the limit you set is enforced off your machine and your funds sit in a wallet only that signer can trade with and cannot drain. for the dollar-settled venue, the key you bring is on the machine today too, and the end state is a key held on our side with a restricted scope: up to the amount you set, on one sub-account, with no way to move money out. spending and approvals carries the sentence that is true for every venue until those moves are done.

who may trade?

the crypto-settled venue is not offered where it is restricted, and the check is ours, from your agent's region, failing closed when the region is unknown. the dollar-settled venue is for people the venue itself admits, on your own account. your agent reads the odds for anyone; trading is where the rules bite.

what is switched on today?

reading, searching and watching markets on both venues works today. proposing a trade for your approval works on both where you are allowed and have set up the account. the secured signer for the crypto-settled venue and the server-held key for the dollar-settled venue are not built yet, which is why the on-machine sentence above is the true one; this page changes for each venue the day its key moves.

what next

Reading this as a machine? Get the raw markdown.